It could happen… Pakistan defeated Bangladesh by the rather comfortable margin of 21 runs in their opening match, but ended up losing heavily to Australia, and that 34 run loss means that Bangladesh have a very realistic shot of upstaging the defending champions and giving them a humiliating first round exit. Here is the points table as it stands right now:
1) Bangladesh Bat First: In this case they have to ensure that no matter what they score, Australia lose by a margin of at least 9 runs. Australia in this case would still qualify with a net run rate of 0.65. If however, they manage to defeat Australia by as high a margin as 48 runs, then Pakistan would qualify ahead of Australia on net run rate.
2) Bangladesh Bat Second: The first assumption is that Australia are either bowled out or bat their full 20 overs. The second assumption is that Bangladesh win by a margin of one run, i.e. they just get over Australia’s score rather than hit a six and win by six or five or less runs. In this case Bangladesh have to chase down whatever Australia score in 113-116 balls (18.5 to 19.2) depending on what Australia score (I’ve taken realistic ranges from Australia scoring 90 to 250), to get a higher net run rate than Pakistan. For these same ranges in scores, Bangladesh would have to achieve their target in roughly 7.3 to 11.2 overs (varying from 90 to 200) to push Australia’s nrr below Pakistan, which is much riskier for them and unlikely to happen.
So as you can see, if Bangladesh do win, they stand an excellent chance of qualifying ahead of Pakistan as long as they don’t win by a very small margin. Which is why it was crucial for the defending champions to score as close to Australia’s score as possible yesterday, so that Australia would not take the chance of losing to Bangladesh by a small margin themselves since that might have ended their aspirations. The match on the 11th of May assumes critical importance!